When will a new glacial period in the nothern hemisphere begin?

   The author educated in history and specialized in design engineering happened to start working with the themes of ancient glaciation, when he studied migration of the ethnic groups in the process of thawing the Eurasian glacier during the Golocene in context of the common work on Slavonic-Russian ethnonimics. Therefore, we consider the proposed views to be not more than a hypothesis. Our method of study, our weapon is using the visual Cainozoic glacial fluctuation graphs displayed to time scale line according to initial data of the eminent specialists in glaciology and founding the theory without contradictions, if pos-sible, which explains regularity of ancient glaciations reflected on such graphs. The data of the academician Moskvitin (Anthropogene) and the American glaciologist Andrews (Pliocene) was assumed as a basis of the graphs. The dates are for reference and in need of revision.
    The 1st and the 2nd graphs of the table 1 display changing of the Cainozoic glacial periods to the shape of rectangle, the 3rd and the 4th graphs the same fluctuations to the shape of sinusoids. There are 8 periods in all. The graphs show the Pliocene glacial period is very large, glaciation and inter-glaciation last for about 1,6 million years each. In the early Pleistocene glaciation and interglaciation go on for about 500 thousand years each, then they cut down to 200 thousand years, later on in the middle Pleistocene the train of glaciations and interglaciations passes being 100 thousand years each, and in the late Pleistocene the half-periods approximately halve each time, cutting gradually down to 22-18 thousand years.
Besides, the traditional question "why do glaciation change regularly for interglaciation" we can ask now why do the glacial fluctuation periods about 80 times reduce their duration in the Cainozoy, what is the reason for such glacial process?
According to our conception the reason for changing the Cainozoic glacial phases consists in sharp change of the oceanic currents, and first of all the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio, when a glacier reaches its critical maximum (in case glaciation changes for interglaciation) or its critical minimum mass(in case interglaciation changes for a new glaciation). Crust buckling up and down in the Bering region and the same out of phase (and out of synchronism) in the near-greenland space play the lea-ding part in that process. As we think very slow crust buckling up and the same slow buckling down in those regions can be accelerated by the catastrophic faults of the lithosphere seams in the regions of the North-Atlantic rift and its branches or the Aleutian-Kmchatka trenches in conformity with the phase of glacial process. Then the edges of lithosphere slabs are buckling sharply up or down in one or the other of the mentioned regions having exceeded shearing stress from the vertical forces the corres-ponding resistance limit for the connecting material which binds the edges of lithosphere seam.
   Our mechanism of glacial fluctuation has something in common with the Layel-Dan hypothesis of the XIX century, who saw the reason of changing the glacial and the interglacial phases in change of the Gulf Stream direction as well, but we consider the vertical land motions from the point of view of a new mobilism theory - theory of lithosphere slabs being a remarkable discovery in geology of the second half of the XX century which naturally was unknown for Layel and Dan.
Thus, we see the reason for coming every new Cainizoic glaciation in thawing the Greenland ice-shield below the minimum critical mark. As a result of ice thawing the crust seek to straighten its buckling down existed before, to rise up. Stress will exceed the resistance limit in the lithosphere seam of the North-Atlantic rift region in the certain phase, a catastrophic fault will open and the near-greenland crust region will rush sharply up, this way decreasing width of the Denmark, the Davis and the other straits of the Canadian Arctic Islands. The surface and the deep currents existing there will be cut off, water outflow from the Arctic to the Atlantic Ocean will reduce sharply. Backwater will be formed in the Arctic Ocean, and the dynamic wave can arise in the Greenland Sea being a strong stream which will search where to go out and rush into the North Sea along the line of least resistance and pass the La Manche towards the Atlantic Ocean. Naturally, those stream will gush so as to cross the Gulf Stream, turn it in the latitudinal direction and drive it off to the south for a long thousands of years. Having the lithosphere seam fault in the dynamics, crust pressure in the mantle magmatic stratum will change in this region, it will decrease sharply and a sad fate of Atlantida can overtake the low-lying regions of Britain, Ireland, Holland and a number of the other low-lying lands of Western Europe. The same occurs in every glacial cycle. Atlantida (Madeyrida perhaps united with Canareida by land) renews approximately in the middle of each glaciation when the level of the World Ocean decreases considerably, and, that's more important, the north-western part of the Eurasian slab goes jerkily down into the ocean deeper and deeper under heaviness of glacier with the periodic lithosphere seam faults as well. And then the catastrophe goes back, having thawed mainland ice approximately in the 1st third of every interglaciation: South Britain, Netherlands etc. rise jerkily from the ocean, and Atlantida and the part of the Mediterranean region come down into the oceanic gulf with rumble and crash of earthquakes, with the flashes of volcanic eruptions. Certainly, at the same time land buckles slowly and smoothly up or down having slacked or increased its glacial load.
    Let's return to the moment of the beginning of a new glaciation. When the Gulf Stream goes away from the Arctic Ocean (AO) from the shores of the North America in the form of arc which doesn't reach the Faeroes to the shores of Spain and further to the Tropical Atlantics, the water level in the AO will begin to fall down and the Kuroshio will rush into it with high speed through the Bering Strait raising the water level in it up to the level of the World Ocean. The climate of Antarctica with the frosts impossible now will set already during the first winter in North Atlantics deprived of heat of the Gulf Stream, the continuous severe snowstorms and blizzards, the Greenland, the North, the Norwegian, the Baltic and the Barents seas unfreezing now will freeze at once. His Magesty New Glacial Period will set to the north-west of Eurasia and in the North America for a long thousands of years (for 12-15 thousand years according to our estimation).
The damp subtropics will come to the North-East Asia and Alaska, having set total supremacy of the warm Kuroshio in the north part of the Pacific Ocean (PO) and in the east part of the AO (inclu-ding in the sea of Okhotsk, the Bering, the Chukchi, the East Syberian, the Laptev and the Beaufort seas). At the same time, the glaciers thick enough can be formed on the mountains of Chukotka, Alaska, Yakutia and Kamchatka owing to the low level cryosphere typical for the near-polar regions and increasing humidity of air, but there will be very warm on the valleys and the lowlands. We pro-pose to consider the present climatic condition of the North-East Asia including Yakutia as the peculiar glacial period changing naturally for the mild, but also peculiar interglaciation being in the opposite phase to the West-Eurasian and the North-American glacial period. Its peculiarity consists in the fact that it's very cold during the cold period but the glaciers aren't available owing to dryness and very warm in the mild period, but the mountain glaciers grow on because of intense increase of humidity.
Having turned to the south, the Gulf Stream will do away with or push aside the cold Canary Current and bring abundant precipitation to Spain and the Sahara. There will set the climate called pluvial, i.e. a rainy period. Though, it's not very stable and simple in the Sahara as the data of the field climatology shows.
   In our time the phases of the glacial period will change back in 12-15 thousand years as mentioned. The West-Eurasian-North-American glacier grown on up to enormous dimensions will build up huge pressure in the crust and the mantle which will influence on all the crust through astenosphere by the Pascal's law including the Bering region. Crust buckling down to the west of Eurasia and in the North America will have as natural consequence its buckling up in the Bering region. The level of the World Ocean will go down at the end of the glacial period, and dryness of atmosphere will increase. The mountain glaciers of Chukotka and Alaska which before the moment prevent by its heaviness from buckling up and blocking the Bering Strait will begin apparently to thaw at the final stage of dvelop-ment of the process. The above will lead to the fact that the strait bed will begin to rise slowly generating tangential stress in the lithosphere seam of the Aleutian Trench. Having exceeded the resistance limit of seam, it will give a fault in the most strained section, Beringia will rush sharply up, and the Bering Strait will stop existing. It will renew, having thawed the Great West Glacier, but till then the route for the Kuroshio to the AO will be closed, the water level will begin falling in it, and the Gulf Stream will be "forced" to rush into the AO raising its level. A new interglaciation will begin. Some thousands of years shelf and sea ice will thaw, then mainland ice of the North-West Eurasia and the North America will thaw thousands of years as well. The Greenland glacial shield will thaw the last down to a new minimum critical mass. According to our opinion the level of minimum critical mass determines strength of the lithosphere seam in the north section of the Central Atlantic Rift. It will become gradually warm again, having reformed ordinarily the oceanic currents in the North-West Eurasia and the North America, the arid climate of the greatest desert in the world will set again in the Sahara, the pole of cold will return anew to Yakutia, and Kolyma and Chukotka stop being the health resorts.
    The proposed conception possesses certain logical harmony, can be corroborated and proved scientifically using geology, paleoclimatology, paleontology, paleobotany and paleozoology. If you look attentively at the map of the Bering region given in the book "Winters of Our Planet" M. Mir, 1982, fig.150, p.252 (trans. from Engl.), you'll see that ice by the shores of Chukotka, the Eastern Siberia to the Taimyr Peninsula and also the north Alaska isn't available at all during maximum glaciation of the last glacial period. All the north Europe is under ice as well as all the north-west Asia, all the northern part of the North America, the greatest part of the area of water of the AO and the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean along the line of Labrador, Greenland, Iceland, the Faeroes, Ireland, Britain. At the same time ice isn't available in the AO to the east of the Taimyr Peninsula along Chukotka and Alaska right up to the Victoria Island to the north of Canada and almost up to the very North Pole. Why? You see in our time at the end of Golocene the heaviest ice is just in those parts even during summertime. We have an answer: warm water of Kuroshio which then being a strong stream came in the AO through the Bering Strait and heated the AO in the Bering region during the Ostashovsky glaciation as well as the other ones. And the situation in the North Atlantics shows clearly that at the same time the Gulf Stream turned to the south forming the great arc and didn't reach Greenland, Iceland and the Faeroes. Only the hopelessly blind people can't see the fact. Analysis of the map (fig.150) shows that the hypothesis of autofluctuating Cainozoic glacial process stated in the given work has a reliable foundation, and the hypotheses orientating toward changing of albedo, the hotbed effect, the sun and the space cycles etc. have auxiliary importance. They play their part, but just their part. Any changes of the oceanic currents and first of all the Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio proceeding from buckling down of terrestrial surface and the faults of the lithosphere seams by turns in the Bering and the Greenland regions play first fiddle in the Great Cainozoic Glaciations. The direct evidences that such faults and sharp buckling up and down of the parts of land aren't a fiction but a reality which can be checked, aren't available. The scale of time is colossal, geological. And those rifts and trenches are deeply. The indirect evidence is some information of Platon about Atlantida, about the circumstances because of which that mysterious insular country is lost. We hold fast on Atlantida and think that time and onward development of science will confirm our considerations.
Further, the tigers and the leopards still live in the Ussurisky taiga which is such severe now. They "remember" the beneficial climate of the last Far-Eastern interglaciation. The tigers were found, im-possible to imagine, on the New Siberian islands 18-20 thousand years ago as their bones testify to. They consider that the tigers came there during the great climatic optimum, but as we think they froze there during those "optimum", optimum was to the west of Eurasia in the zone of action of the Gulf Stream, and considerable fall of temperature is to correspond with it in the North-East Asia, the tigers lived in Yakutia during the West glaciation. The tigers weren't the only which came to the New Siberian islands, they came there following the representatives of the corresponding fauna, i.e. the red deers, the Manchurian deers, and the above followed subtropical vegetation. The Chukchi tale about the "gigantic worm" devouring the animals and the people written by Natan Bogoraz testifies to the climate similar to the damp subtropics set in Chukotka not long ago. All the investigators including Bogoraz himself see correctly a predatory python being an animal of subtropics in the "great worm". They used to consider the fact as an evidence of distant south residence of the ancient Chukchi men. The author has the other opinion. Damp subtropics stretched far to the north in the West of the Eastern Siberia.
    Edward Derbishir confirms in his book "Winters of Our Planet", p.131: "The glacial periods of the tropical and subtropical zone coincided to some extent with the so called pluvial "rainy" periods which were notable for great recipitation and damping, but it's a large simplification to carry out direct correlation between those periods". We consider that not to carry out correlation between those periods is to doom the views of the eminent scientist to misunderstanding the essence of the current events. Moreover, the Derbeshir's field observations are a weighty evidence of our speculative constructions. Apropos, the leading Russian geological scientists: V.M. Kotlyakov and his colleagues M.G. Groswald and A.N. Krenke are more definite. They write in their joint work "Climate of the Earth: past, present, future": "... But the climate became damper in the subtropic and the out-of-glacier regions of the temperate zones. That's why the so-called pluvials corresponded to the glaciations there that means literally the periods of rains. The tracks of the high coast lines of the ancient lakes in the hollows being dry and semi-dry at present of the mentioned regions testify to their reality.", p.33. In addition, in those times area of the Lake Chad exceeded area of the contemporary Caspian Sea.
    D.B.Oreshkin informs in the book "Time for Ice", p.104: "The Japanese specialists found apt application for the millenial chronicles. They fixed yearly the date of spring ritual when an emperor with his suite went out to admire the blooming Japanese cherry. That was a beautiful document reflecting the climatic fluctuations in the Far East. And as occurs frequently a new approach gave a new problem instead of clearing all the details. The Japanese cherry bloomed later than usually at the frontier between the first and the second milleniums and somewhat before, i.e. during the small climatic optimum when the vikings went to the north, to Iceland, Greenland. It means that there was growing cold. Then on the contrary, the small glacial period begins in Europe and spring comes to the Far East earlier than usually." The fact that is a riddle and strangeness for    D.B. Oreshkin is a beatiful corroboration for our hypothesis.
But we don't hide the difficulties of the proposed conception. The foundations for the dates are shaky. True, we object decidedly to the paleoclimatic curves created according to the analysis of ground oceanic columns obtained in the Caribbian Sea, the Indian Ocean (IO) or the tropical part of the PO. They are good for the views of the supporters of Croll-Milankovich, but absolutely senseless as applied to our system of views. We can only be glad for equipment of the american science with modern machinery and appliances which could fix fall and rise in temperature using the spectral, isotopic and oxigen methods according to the columns of the ground sediments taken in the Caribbian Sea and the IO corresponding to the astronomic cycles of Milankovich. And no wonder that the employees of the Shekltone-Imbry discovered those correlations. And what more could they discover in the IO which didn't know the Cainozoic glaciation? However, one can say they weren't successful in the North Atlantics where quite the other processes were actual, the other more strong phenomena slured to considerable extent over the correlations with the Milankovich's cycles there. And why did they consider only the interval of six hundred years, when the tectonic periods approached to the Milankovich's centenary cycles, and perhaps they could "have repercussions" with them? We agree with the conclusions obtained from studying the ground columns taken only in the North Atlantics somewhat to the south and the north of the Faeroes, round Britain, in the Barents, the Baltic, the White, the Laptev, the East Siberian , the Chukchi, the Bering and the Beauford seas, and certainly, in the mainlands: the North Eurasia, the North America and the islands surrounding those regions and in the North Africa as well. But everything needs to be specified, any mistakes and prejudices, arbitrary juggling with the facts for reaching the Milankovich's curves aren't admissible, the matter is very serious. 
    "The ravines" of climatic fluctuations break harmony and beauty of hypothesis. Really, the glacial periods don't pass smoothly along the curves rising or levelling fluently. Direction and speed of oce-anic currents change, and temperature of air and water in the oceans is very unsteady correspondingly. The glaciers first advance, then retreat during one period, now the climatic optimum, now the period of cold snap are observed during the interglaciations, the small glacial period changes for the small interglaciation. The Gulf Stream and the Kuroshio are in permanent struggle. Fall and rise of temperature of the Croll-Milankovich's astroclimatic cycles superimpose over the glacial processes, as well as the natural changes in atmospheric carbonic acid, first of all of volcanic origin (also the anthropogenic ones now), any changes in atmospheric methane and water steam, any changes in albedo. The glacial processes become complicated, but according to our opinion the hypothesis remains to be convincing enough.
    Determining the beginning of a new glacial period is directly related to the anthropogenic influ-ence on climate. We calculate time of its beginning as follows. The last three cycles of glaciation-interglaciation reduced approximately in two each time. As we think, it's related to slackening strength of lithosphere seams in the North-Atlantic Rift and the Aleutian Trench owing to the vertical motions frequent in terms of geology. The last iterglaciation but one went on for 35 thousand years, it means the Golocene will last probably for 17,5-18 thousand years. According to unanimous statement of glaciologists the period of maximum glaciation of the last glacier was 18 thousand years ago. As for our conception the moment of maximum development of glacial process is simultaneously the moment of its termination, the moment of the beginning of a new interglaciation, i.e. the beginning of the Golocene. It means the moment draws near. In the meanwhile the settlements of the first vikings thaw out of the Greenland glacial shield. When will the Greenland glacier reach its minimum critical mark? According to the prognosis of G.Flon being a West German climatologist then, increasing hotbed effect because of excessive effluent of carbonic acid into atmosphere from the chimneys of industrial enterprises and the car exhausts will lead to quick rise in temperature on the Earth. Flon affirms, in 2000-2010 the climate will be similar to the conditions of the early Middle Ages, i.e. the small climatic optimum. The period about 2020 could be similar to the warmest one of climatic optimum about 6000 years ago. The period 2020 to 2050 will be the most similar to the conditions of the mildest one of the previous interglaciation, i.e. the Greenland glacial shield will reach the minimum critical mark somewhere in the interval 2020-2050, at the same time a New Glacial Period is considered coming.
    Is there any method to get rid of the terrible glacial catastrophe? The author sees a possibility. The method is difficult and expensive, but solving completely the problem and up to the interested coun-tries of the north hemisphere, if they will act freendly and resolutely without serious losses of time. We propose to create the water-development works in the Bering Strait which will be capable to control water change between the Pacific, the Arctic and the Atlantic Oceans. It will operate in one condition as a dam which prevents passing the Pacific water to the AO, in the other conditions as a high-power pumping plant pumping water from the AO to the PO, but at the usual time cutting off and pumping nothing and serving only as a bridge from the North-East Asia to the North-West America.
    The Bering water development is to serve as a dam in the case if the catastrophic situation will arise and the other methods to turn it back will be unsuccessful, i.e. the mobile waterlocks are to be provided with the water development. The dam will assist to lower the level in the AO by cutting off passing the pacific water to the AO, and it will force the Gulf Stream to turn to its route to the Barents Sea usual for interglaciation. Having reached the standard water level in the AO, the Bering water development locks are to open that water from the AO could flow into the PO. The method creates artificially the mode of terminating the glacial period which doesn't begin in point of fact. But the mode of cutting off all the Bering water development is reserve for failure, if the other methods won't work. Such a shock for population of all the north hemisphere isn't admissible. At the usual time the reliable automatic control system of water change between the Atlantic, the Arctic and the Pacific Oceans, i.e. the powerful axial-flow pumps are to be establisted, besides the waterlocks, in the Bering water development, which will be let down into water and take part in the work in response to the signal of sensors established in the Atlantic, the Arctic, the Pacific oceans and the Bering Strait itself. Beginning to pump water from the AO to the PO at the necessary moment, when the Gulf Stream is no longer in obedience, operating in response to the signals of the automatic control system, the Bering water development will be able to nip in the bud the glacial troubles for the people. Certainly, the Bering region is to be supplied with the highways, the railroads and the high-capacity electric power sources on the Russian and the American sides. We can repeat, the Bering water development is to cut off and pump nothing in the stable mode. At the usual time it will be only a bridge from Russia to the USA and Canada. 
Indeed, the twenty first century, the third millennium will face such a problem.

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Nikolay A. Zharvin, Moscow, phone 468-89-86 
17. 09. 2001.

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